QUEST HOLDINGS (Q1:23 preview):
The group will report Q1:23 figures today after market close. We expect a strong top line growth amid commercial sector strong Q1 kick off (Apple and IQT), flat y-o-y EBITDA margin and flat EBT. In more specific:
§ Sales are projected to climb 14.7% y-o-y to €273.14mn on strong performance of IT services (Unisystems) and IT Commercial segments (strong demand for Apple products) while ACS and Energy are seen rising by mid-single digit top line growth.
§ Higher contribution of commercial segment and lower Unisystems EBITDA margin will burden EBITDA growth to 8.7% to €18.34mn on practically flat EBITDA margin (-34bps, 6.71% vs 7.1%).
§ The absence of €1.3mn extraordinary profit in Q1:22, higher depreciation charges will lead EBT to €14.85mn, +6.2% y-oy.
§ Assuming a 22% tax rate we opt for Net income settling at 11.58mn, +12.5% y-o-y.
§ Quest also announced yesterday a new acquisition in the IT segment by entering in Erafos SA share capital (110% stake) for €2.47mn, plus a potential earnout of an equal amount (an additional €2.47mn) depending upon the future performance of the company. ERAFOS is expected to add €5mn turnover in the IT services segment (Unisystems0 with an EBITDA margin of 10%. ERAFOS is specializing in developing integrated information systems to streamline the management and operations of educational organizations for the past 30 years. It holds a leading position in its market segment with a customer base of 3.000 active customers in the sector of education and a market share of approx. 80% offering a wide range of IT solutions and related services.
Stay long, Recommendation unchanged (OVERWEIGHT), TP €6.8/share.
The following table summarise our Q1:23 estimates:
|
QUEST |
2022 |
2023 |
Y-o-Y |
|
EUR thous. |
Q1 |
Q1 Est. |
(%) |
|
Sales |
238,084 |
275,210 |
15.6% |
|
EBITDA |
16,900 |
18,340 |
8.5% |
|
EBITDA Mrg |
7.1% |
6.7% |
-43 bps |
|
Net Income |
9,958 |
10,520 |
5.6% |
|
Net Mrg |
4.2% |
3.8% |
-36 bps |
|
Quest Holdings (€mn) |
Q1 ’22 (A) |
Q1 ’23 Est |
% chng y-o-y |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Retail Products |
161.99 |
191.44 |
18.18% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
68.04% |
69.56% |
|
|
IT Services |
42.06 |
48.14 |
14.46% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
17.67% |
17.49% |
|
|
Courrier/Postal Services |
31.94 |
33.45 |
4.73% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
13.42% |
12.16% |
|
|
Solar Energy |
1.98 |
2.07 |
4.78% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
0.83% |
0.75% |
|
|
Other |
0.09 |
0.10 |
11.11% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
0.04% |
0.04% |
|
|
Discontinued (Electronic Transactions) |
0.03 |
0.00 |
-100.00% |
|
% of consolidated sales |
0.01% |
0.00% |
|
|
Total Consolidated Sales (Reported) |
238.08 |
275.21 |
15.59% |
|
Total Consolidated Sales (Comparable) |
238.06 |
275.21 |
15.61% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
IT Products EBITDA |
6.08 |
6.78 |
11.62% |
|
% of consolidated EBITDA |
36.00% |
36.98% |
|
|
EBITDA margin |
3.75% |
3.54% |
-21 bps |
|
IT Services EBITDA |
4.40 |
4.81 |
9.52% |
|
% of consolidated EBITDA |
26.05% |
26.25% |
|
|
EBITDA margin |
10.45% |
10.00% |
-45 bps |
|
Courrier EBITDA |
4.87 |
5.19 |
6.50% |
|
% of consolidated EBITDA |
28.85% |
28.28% |
|
|
EBITDA margin |
15.24% |
15.50% |
+26 bps |
|
Solar Energy EBITDA |
1.57 |
1.66 |
5.63% |
|
% of consolidated EBITDA |
9.29% |
9.03% |
|
|
EBITDA margin |
79.35% |
80.00% |
+65 bps |
|
Total EBITDA (Reported) |
16.88 |
18.34 |
8.66% |
|
EBITDA margin |
7.09% |
6.66% |
-43 bps |
|
Total EBITDA (Comparable) |
16.91 |
18.34 |
8.45% |
|
Comparable EBITDA margin |
7.10% |
6.66% |
-44 bps |
|
|
|
|
|
|
D&A |
1.24 |
3.03 |
143.75% |
|
% over sales |
0.52% |
1.10% |
+58 bps |
|
EBIT |
15.63 |
15.31 |
-2.07% |
|
EBIT margin |
6.57% |
5.56% |
-100 bps |
|
Net Financials |
-1.65 |
-1.50 |
-8.87% |
|
% on sales |
-0.69% |
-0.55% |
+15 bps |
|
EBT |
13.99 |
13.81 |
-1.27% |
|
EBT margin |
5.88% |
5.02% |
-86 bps |
|
Taxes |
4.03 |
3.29 |
-18.43% |
|
Tax Rate |
28.81% |
23.80% |
-501 bps |
|
EAT |
10.30 |
10.77 |
4.60% |
|
EAT Margin |
4.33% |
3.91% |
-41 bps |
|
Minorities |
0.34 |
0.25 |
-26.69% |
|
% on EAT |
3.30% |
2.31% |
-99 bps |
|
NET INCOME AM |
9.96 |
10.52 |
5.67% |
|
Net Margin |
4.18% |
3.82% |
-36 bps |
